1
Auld Lange Syne
10yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 63
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 18/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |