Concealed Carry
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-04-04 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-03-01 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2023 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 19/11/2023 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 03/08/2024 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 01/03/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/04/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 82% | -0.13 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 10/11 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |