3
Galilee
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 61
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2024-08-02 | Penn National | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2023 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 31/01/2024 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 25/07/2024 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 02/08/2024 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 03/01/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/01/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 18/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |