4
Verbier
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength74%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 12/11/2025 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 08/12/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 24/12/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |