4
Blazing Tony
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 67
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-04-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 22% | -0.41 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |