1
Corfu Fighting
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +17.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |