5
Heza Pistol
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-11-11 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength70%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/12/2023 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 09/01/2024 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 03/09/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 11/11/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |