3
Kickstart
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 25% | -0.67 |
| 05/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 04/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 10/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 09/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 17/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |