6
Ollie's Folly
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength90%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 10/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |