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8

Cantcatchlilfletch

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 52

Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength98%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 03/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS3/03C6C6 @ Mahoning Valley 19/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 32 · 1m 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/03/2026 · OR 32 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 06/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 34 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 34 par6/04C6OR 34C6 @ Thistledown 29/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 43 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 43 parC6 @ Thistledown 16/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 48 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 48 par16/05C6OR 48C6 @ Thistledown 20/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 45 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 45 parC6 @ Mountaineer 06/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 46 · 6f Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 46 par6/07C6OR 46C6 @ Thistledown 27/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 52 · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 52 parC6 @ Thistledown 03/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 54 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 54 par3/09C6OR 54projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Thistledown?5th2nd+3
2026-07-27Thistledown?4th1st+3
2026-07-06Mountaineer?4th1st+3
2026-06-20Thistledown?5th2nd+3
2026-05-16Thistledown?8th5th+3
2026-04-29Thistledown?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0329/046/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength87%

Delivery trend +8.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/03/20265th6/168%0%-0.68
19/03/20266th10/147%0%-0.47
06/04/20264th25/10%67%+0.67
29/04/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
16/05/20268th16/116%0%-0.16
20/06/20265th33/10%64%+0.64
06/07/20264th15/261%50%-0.11
27/07/20264th16/116%73%+0.57
03/09/20265th14/126%33%+0.07