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4

Mister Bad Example

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 45

Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength86%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS16/05C6C6 @ Thistledown 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 39 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 39 par20/06C6OR 39C6 @ Thistledown 08/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 50 · 1m 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 50 par8/07C6OR 50projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-08Thistledown?5th2nd+3
2026-06-20Thistledown?6th3rd+3
2026-05-16Thistledown?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0520/068/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%

Delivery trend -13.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20266th7/163%29%-0.35
20/06/20266th16/116%55%+0.39
08/07/20265th7/282%20%-0.62