IvyArcIvyArc
6

Mr. Riffle

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 60

Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

80%

Place Prob

61%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength95%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 03/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 5f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 57 par3/10C6OR 57C6 @ Mahoning Valley 23/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 55 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/10/2025 · OR 55 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 06/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 58 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/11/2025 · OR 58 par6/11C6OR 58C6 @ Mahoning Valley 09/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 56 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/12/2025 · OR 56 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 24/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 54 · 6f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/12/2025 · OR 54 par24/12C6OR 54C6 @ Mahoning Valley 01/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 57 · 5f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/02/2026 · OR 57 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 26/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 59 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 59 par26/02C6OR 59C6 @ Mahoning Valley 19/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 63 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/03/2026 · OR 63 par19/03C6OR 63projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-19Mahoning Valley?5th2nd+3
2026-02-26Mahoning Valley?7th4th+3
2026-02-01Mahoning Valley?8th5th+3
2025-12-24Mahoning Valley?2nd-1th+3
2025-12-09Mahoning Valley?3rd0th+3
2025-11-06Mahoning Valley?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/109/1226/0219/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength60%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/10/20252nd11/486%83%-0.02
23/10/20253rd11/486%82%-0.04
06/11/20254th11/486%67%-0.19
09/12/20253rd9/276%71%-0.05
24/12/20252nd7/282%80%-0.02
01/02/20268th4/179%22%-0.57
26/02/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
19/03/20265th10/147%33%-0.14