Remix From Phoenix
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 32
Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-04-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-03-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2024 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 28/12/2024 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 12/03/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 26/03/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 10/04/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 29/04/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 11% | -0.42 |
| 14/05/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 16/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |