IvyArcIvyArc
3

Rollin For Real

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 56

Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

20%

Place Prob

31%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength90%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 01/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS1/02C6C6 @ Mahoning Valley 26/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 56 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/02/2026 · OR 56 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 19/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 57 · 1m 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/03/2026 · OR 57 par19/03C6OR 57C6 @ Thistledown 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 56 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 56 parC6 @ Thistledown 03/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 54 · 1m 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 54 par3/06C6OR 54C6 @ Thistledown 20/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 55 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 55 parC6 @ Thistledown 08/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 63 · 1m 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 63 par8/07C6OR 63C6 @ Thistledown 13/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 60 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 60 parC6 @ Thistledown 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 62 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 62 par3/09C6OR 62projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Thistledown?4th1st+3
2026-08-13Thistledown?3rd0th+3
2026-07-08Thistledown?3rd0th+3
2026-06-20Thistledown?8th5th+3
2026-06-03Thistledown?6th3rd+3
2026-05-16Thistledown?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0216/058/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/02/20269th14/126%11%-0.15
26/02/20268th14/126%13%-0.14
19/03/20264th14/126%40%+0.14
16/05/20266th20/10%29%+0.29
03/06/20266th9/153%38%-0.15
20/06/20268th25/10%36%+0.36
08/07/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23
13/08/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
03/09/20264th13/266%50%-0.16