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5

Skiptheguilttrip

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 32

Thistledown · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength74%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 26/09/2023 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS26/09C6C6 @ Thistledown 10/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 36 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 36 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 27/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 35 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 35 par27/10C6OR 35C9 @ Mahoning Valley 18/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 34 · 5f110y 126 · beat its mark18/11/2025 · OR 34 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 16/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 33 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/12/2025 · OR 33 par16/12C6OR 33C9 @ Mahoning Valley 24/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 30 · 6f Gd 126 · beat its mark24/02/2026 · OR 30 parC9 @ Thistledown 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 32 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 32 par7/09C9OR 32C6 @ Thistledown 21/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 30 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 30 par21/09C6OR 30projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Thistledown?5th2nd+3
2026-09-07Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-02-24Mahoning Valley?10th10th0
2025-12-16Mahoning Valley?6th3rd+3
2025-11-18Mahoning Valley?4th4th0
2025-10-27Mahoning Valley?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0918/117/0921/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength15%

Delivery trend +7.3% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/09/20236th8/158%0%-0.58
10/10/20254th6/168%40%-0.28
27/10/20254th13/266%40%-0.26
18/11/20254th6/168%50%-0.18
16/12/20256th33/10%29%+0.29
24/02/202610th9/153%0%-0.53
07/09/20264th10/147%40%-0.07
21/09/20265th20/10%20%+0.20