5
Icare Williams
8yo Gelding · 10-3
Vincennes · Prix Jean Mary - Monte · 1m 2f 178y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Vincennes | 2 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-22 | Vincennes | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Vichy | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Enghien | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Vincennes | 3 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-04 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength78%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 19/11/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 06/12/2025 | 1st | 66/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 15/04/2026 | 15th | 80/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 93% | +0.22 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |