16
Incognito
8yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Constantia - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Vichy | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Vichy | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Vichy | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Meslay Du Maine | 7 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mauquenchy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Cabourg | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 6-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -9.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |
| 19/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 07/04/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/09/2026 | 10th | 7/4 | 91% | 18% | -0.73 |