Big Moonrise
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 45
Wolverhampton · Hotel & Conferencing At Wolverhampton Handicap · 1m 1f 104y
#12
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Chepstow | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Ffos Las | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-27 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-12-27 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 125/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 27/01/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |