Magic Runner
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 50
Wolverhampton · Hotel & Conferencing At Wolverhampton Handicap · 1m 1f 104y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Lingfield | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-03-10 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 02/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 16/02/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 10/03/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 27/03/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/09/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 15/09/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |