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2

Manton Road

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 54

Wolverhampton · Hotel & Conferencing At Wolverhampton Handicap · 1m 1f 104y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

45%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended a losing run here (7f) in July and remained in form since, including third of 12 over 8.6f here 14 days ago, shaping quite well having been poorly placed. Considered.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 29/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 51 · 1m13y Std 131 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 51 par29/046OR 516 @ Brighton 29/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 45 · 7f216y Goo 126 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Wolverhampton 16/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 49 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 49 par16/066OR 496 @ Wolverhampton 06/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 49 · 1m142y Std 132 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 49 · 1m1y Std 135 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 49 par13/076OR 496 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 51 · 7f36y Std 132 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Lingfield 20/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 55 · 1m1y Std 130 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 55 par20/086OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 26/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m142y Std 133 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 54 · 1m142y Std 134 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 54 par15/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-08-26Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-08-20Lingfield65th5th0
2026-07-30Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-07-13Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-07-06Wolverhampton62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/046/0720/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20267th16/116%33%+0.18
29/05/202610th33/10%10%+0.10
16/06/20263rd66/10%78%+0.78
06/07/20262nd12/137%92%+0.55
13/07/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04
30/07/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
20/08/20265th6/168%60%-0.08
26/08/20264th4/179%73%-0.06
15/09/20263rd9/153%82%+0.29