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Arundel

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 65

Wolverhampton · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

73%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Returned from a near year-long absence with an encouraging third at Yarmouth (1¼m, good) last month and built on that with an 11f Kempton success under Billy Loughnane last Wednesday. Respected under a 5 lb-penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength69%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Beverley 13/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 58 · 1m1f207y Goo 128 · beat its mark13/05/2025 · OR 58 par13/056OR 585 @ Pontefract 23/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 58 · 1m2f5y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2025 · OR 58 par5 @ Newmarket 19/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 62 · 1m2f GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 62 par19/075OR 625 @ Yarmouth 03/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 65 · 1m2f23y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2025 · OR 65 par6 @ Thirsk 15/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 65 · 1m4f8y Goo 132 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 65 par15/086OR 655 @ Newmarket 22/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 66 · 1m2f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 66 par5 @ Lingfield 13/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 67 · 1m4f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 67 par13/095OR 675 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 65 · 1m2f23y GS 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Kempton 23/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 65 · 1m2f219y Sta 135 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 65 par23/096OR 65projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Kempton61st1st0
2026-08-30Yarmouth53rd2nd+1
2025-09-13Lingfield55th4th+1
2025-08-22Newmarket54th3rd+1
2025-08-15Thirsk62nd2nd0
2025-08-03Yarmouth52nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/053/0813/0923/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/05/20252nd5/174%88%+0.14
23/05/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
19/07/20252nd5/287%88%+0.01
03/08/20252nd11/893%80%-0.13
15/08/20252nd5/696%83%-0.12
22/08/20254th13/891%40%-0.51
13/09/20255th10/382%20%-0.62
30/08/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24
23/09/20261st3/184%100%+0.16