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4

Boubyan

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 61

Wolverhampton · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dropped to a career-low mark but ran moderately when fifth of 8 at Redcar (1¼m, good) 38 days ago. Up in trip. One who needs things to drop right.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 21/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m5y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 67 par21/035OR 674 @ Wolverhampton 30/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 67 · 1m1f104y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Nottingham 18/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 66 · 1m2f50y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 66 par18/045OR 666 @ Pontefract 29/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 1m6y Goo 135 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 65 · 1m2f Goo 135 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 65 par4/056OR 656 @ Brighton 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 65 · 1m1f207y GF 135 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Doncaster 23/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 64 · 7f213y GF 134 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 64 par23/076OR 646 @ Brighton 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 64 · 7f216y Goo 134 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 63 · 1m2f1y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 63 par22/085OR 63projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Redcar55th4th+1
2026-08-06Brighton63rd3rd0
2026-07-23Doncaster63rd3rd0
2026-07-07Brighton64th4th0
2026-05-04Windsor65th5th0
2026-04-29Pontefract62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0329/0423/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength14%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20265th20/10%60%+0.60
30/03/20269th10/147%27%-0.20
18/04/202611th10/147%23%-0.24
29/04/20262nd9/153%88%+0.35
04/05/20265th5/287%43%-0.44
07/07/20264th17/255%50%-0.05
23/07/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
06/08/20263rd4/179%60%-0.19
22/08/20265th14/126%43%+0.17