IvyArcIvyArc
3

Golspie

6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 62

Wolverhampton · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Snapped a losing run over 11f at Southwell 12 days ago. Only nudged up 2 lb so likely to be competitive again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength69%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 64 · 1m2f43y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 64 par28/035OR 645 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 65 · 1m2f42y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Kempton 10/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 64 · 1m2f219y Sta 134 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 64 par10/066OR 644 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m4f63y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 63 · 1m4f98y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 63 par27/065OR 636 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 63 · 1m2f42y Sta 133 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 62 · 1m3f24y Std 132 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 62 par6/086OR 625 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 62 · 1m3f23y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 60 · 1m3f23y Std 159 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 60 par17/096OR 60projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Southwell61st1st0
2026-08-31Southwell53rd2nd+1
2026-08-06Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-07-25Newcastle66th6th0
2026-06-27Newcastle53rd2nd+1
2026-06-13Chester44th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0313/066/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength83%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/03/20262nd7/163%92%+0.29
22/05/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
10/06/20264th17/255%77%+0.22
13/06/20264th17/255%57%+0.02
27/06/20263rd17/255%82%+0.27
25/07/20266th13/266%58%-0.07
06/08/20263rd4/179%80%+0.01
31/08/20263rd6/168%67%-0.02
17/09/20261st15/890%100%+0.10