IvyArcIvyArc
5

Vinny's Dream

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 60

Wolverhampton · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 1m 4f 51y

#6

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed fair form at start of his career but well held in 3 all-weather handicaps for Ben Brookhouse in winter 2024/25 and has a 20-month absence to overcome on first outing for Ian Williams. Could only consider if backed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 09/05/2024 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS9/0555 @ Catterick 19/08/2024 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m4f13y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS19/0855 @ Chelmsford City 10/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m2f Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS10/1055 @ Lingfield 03/12/2024 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 73 · 1m7f169y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/12/2024 · OR 73 par3/125OR 734 @ Kempton 18/12/2024 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 72 · 1m3f219y Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/12/2024 · OR 72 par18/124OR 725 @ Southwell 14/01/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 69 · 2m102y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/01/2025 · OR 69 par14/015OR 69projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-01-14Southwell57th6th+1
2024-12-18Kempton410th8th+2
2024-12-03Lingfield58th7th+1
2024-11-14Sedgefield4+2
2024-10-10Chelmsford City53rd2nd+1
2024-08-19Catterick53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0519/0810/103/1218/1214/01
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength3%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20244th14/126%57%+0.31
19/08/20243rd11/1094%50%-0.44
10/10/20243rd14/126%71%+0.45
03/12/20248th25/10%30%+0.30
18/12/202410th33/10%10%+0.10
14/01/20257th14/126%14%-0.12