Dark Mandate
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 58
Wolverhampton · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap · 7f 36y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Kempton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-08-28 | Newbury | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2025-08-15 | Newbury | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 58% | +0.16 |
| 15/06/2025 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 28/07/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 15/08/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 28/08/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 06/10/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 38% | -0.49 |
| 22/10/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |