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Distillation

3yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 58

Wolverhampton · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap · 7f 36y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Second C&D success when making all with ease 8 days ago. A 6 lb-penalty seems unlikely to stop him if showing up in similar form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 24/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 6f20y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS24/1154 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 6f Sta 132 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 52 · 7f36y Std 128 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 52 par2/066OR 526 @ Ffos Las 17/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 52 · 7f80y Sft 123 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 50 · 7f36y Std 125 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 50 par21/076OR 506 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 53 · 1m14y Std 133 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Lingfield 11/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 53 · 7f1y Std 127 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 53 par11/086OR 536 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 52 · 7f36y Std 130 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 52 · 7f36y Std 132 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 52 par21/096OR 52projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-09-18Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-08-11Lingfield66th6th0
2026-08-06Southwell65th5th0
2026-07-21Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-06-17Ffos Las64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1117/0611/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength96%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/11/202510th150/10%25%+0.25
04/05/20269th150/10%20%+0.20
02/06/20262nd12/137%88%+0.51
17/06/20264th18/15%50%+0.45
21/07/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
06/08/20265th11/486%56%-0.30
11/08/20266th7/163%44%-0.19
18/09/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
21/09/20261st8/1397%100%+0.03