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2

Roccobear

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 60

Wolverhampton · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap · 7f 36y

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed twice in 7f handicaps at Lingfield and ran respectably when fifth of 13 over 1m at Kempton when last seen 12 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 09/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 6f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS9/1055 @ Chelmsford City 23/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 6f Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Lingfield 07/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f1y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS7/0255 @ Lingfield 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 65 · 7f1y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Lingfield 14/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 66 · 7f1y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 66 par14/045OR 666 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 65 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Lingfield 12/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 64 · 7f1y Std 134 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 64 par12/056OR 646 @ Kempton 08/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 62 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 62 par8/076OR 62projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-08Kempton65th5th0
2026-05-12Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-04-30Kempton66th6th0
2026-04-14Lingfield55th4th+1
2026-03-27Lingfield52nd1st+1
2026-02-07Lingfield58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1027/0312/058/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength66%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20254th16/116%0%-0.16
23/10/20258th100/10%13%+0.13
07/02/20268th40/10%13%+0.13
27/03/20262nd80/10%89%+0.89
14/04/20265th15/261%56%-0.05
30/04/20266th33/10%55%+0.55
12/05/20263rd11/486%71%-0.14
08/07/20265th33/10%67%+0.67