4
Venetian Romance
3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 60
Wolverhampton · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap · 7f 36y
#7
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Lingfield | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Windsor | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Brighton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Leicester | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Nottingham | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength7%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 15/09/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 06/10/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 20% | -0.35 |
| 08/04/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 27% | -0.36 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 12/09/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |