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Methgal

4yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 63

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap · 6f 20y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Found improvement when winning 11-runner handicap at Kempton (6f) 6 days ago, kept up to work. Looks well-in under a 5-lb penalty and holds leading claims on tapeta debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength67%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA61 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 61 · 7f Gd 131 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 61 par4/0561OR 61BHA60 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 60 · 7f Goo 142 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 60 parBHA59 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 59 · 7f Yie 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 59 par10/0659OR 59BHA59 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 59 · 7f94y Goo 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Yarmouth 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 58 · 7f3y GF 135 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 58 par28/076OR 586 @ Windsor 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 58 · 6f12y GF 135 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 62 · 6f3y GS 136 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 62 par30/086OR 626 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 62 · 5f212y Goo 138 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Kempton 23/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 63 · 6f Sta 138 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 63 par23/096OR 63projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Kempton61st1st0
2026-09-08Catterick62nd2nd0
2026-08-30Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-08-13Windsor61st1st0
2026-07-28Yarmouth62nd2nd0
2026-06-30RoscommonBHA597th7th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0530/0630/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength96%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/05/20269th6/168%43%-0.26
31/05/202612th9/153%21%-0.31
10/06/20264th16/116%75%+0.59
30/06/20267th9/153%57%+0.05
28/07/20262nd6/594%88%-0.06
13/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
30/08/20262nd5/287%88%+0.01
08/09/20262nd6/492%88%-0.05
23/09/20261st7/491%100%+0.09