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5

Rye

4yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 61

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap · 6f 20y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

83%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Belatedly off the mark when narrowly taking 11-runner handicap over C&D 28 days ago. 3 lb rise fair and has the assistance of Billy Loughnane.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 24/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 61 · 6f20y Std 131 · beat its mark24/11/2025 · OR 61 par24/116OR 616 @ Wolverhampton 08/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 61 · 6f20y Std 133 · beat its mark08/12/2025 · OR 61 par6 @ Kempton 02/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 60 · 6f Sta 131 · beat its mark02/03/2026 · OR 60 par2/036OR 606 @ Kempton 25/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 59 · 6f Sta 134 · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Wolverhampton 06/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 59 · 6f20y Std 134 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 59 par6/046OR 596 @ Kempton 06/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 59 · 6f Sta 134 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 58 · 6f12y GF 128 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 58 par23/056OR 585 @ Goodwood 05/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 59 · 6f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Wolverhampton 01/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 58 · 6f21y Std 133 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 58 par1/096OR 58projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-06-05Goodwood56th5th+1
2026-05-23Windsor62nd2nd0
2026-05-06Kempton64th4th0
2026-04-06Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-03-25Kempton63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1125/0323/051/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/11/20255th12/137%64%+0.27
08/12/20256th9/276%38%-0.39
02/03/20263rd5/174%80%+0.06
25/03/20263rd10/382%80%-0.02
06/04/20262nd13/266%88%+0.22
06/05/20264th13/266%70%+0.04
23/05/20262nd11/271%92%+0.21
05/06/20266th4/179%44%-0.35
01/09/20261st11/486%100%+0.14