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Trust Sergei

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 58

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap · 6f 20y

#3

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Overcame a wide draw when narrowly recording a second C&D success of the season here earlier this month. Not disgraced in higher grade here since and can make presence felt again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 23/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 55 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark23/03/2026 · OR 55 par23/036OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 05/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 54 · 5f21y Std 134 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Wolverhampton 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 54 · 6f20y Std 134 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 54 par28/066OR 545 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 54 · 7f1y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 56 · 6f20y Std 139 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 56 par30/076OR 565 @ Windsor 17/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 56 · 5f21y GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 56 par5 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 55 · 6f GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 55 par8/095OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 55 · 6f20y Std 133 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 56 · 6f20y Std 132 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 56 par21/096OR 56projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-09-15Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-09-08Leicester52nd1st+1
2026-08-17Windsor54th3rd+1
2026-07-30Wolverhampton69th9th0
2026-07-10Chester53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0310/078/0921/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength86%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/03/20266th2/189%17%-0.73
05/05/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
28/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
10/07/20263rd15/261%78%+0.17
30/07/20269th66/10%20%+0.20
17/08/20264th11/142%63%+0.20
08/09/20262nd17/255%90%+0.35
15/09/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
21/09/20265th7/282%56%-0.26