IvyArcIvyArc
1

Billy Bathgate

10yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 55

Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 2m 120y

#1

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner who gained a deserved first win of 2026 in 4-runner Redcar handicap (2m) in July. Not quite in same form since but remains on a workable mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 15/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 56 · 2m56y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 56 par15/025OR 566 @ Wolverhampton 02/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 55 · 2m120y Std 133 · beat its mark02/03/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Newcastle 11/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 55 · 2m56y Std 135 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 55 par11/036OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 31/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m5f219y Std 130 · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 55 par5 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 54 · 1m4f98y Sta 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 54 par27/065OR 546 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 53 · 1m7f217y Goo 132 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 57 · 1m5f218y Goo 134 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 57 par8/086OR 576 @ Newcastle 20/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 56 · 1m4f98y Std 140 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 56 · 2m120y Std 133 · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 56 par18/096OR 56projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Wolverhampton66th6th0
2026-08-20Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-08-08Redcar65th5th0
2026-07-19Redcar61st1st0
2026-06-27Newcastle56th5th+1
2026-03-31Wolverhampton64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0231/038/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength19%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/02/20263rd9/276%50%-0.26
02/03/20264th7/491%50%-0.41
11/03/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04
31/03/20264th11/142%67%+0.25
27/06/20266th28/10%55%+0.55
19/07/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
08/08/20265th5/174%50%-0.24
20/08/20263rd7/163%82%+0.19
18/09/20266th22/10%0%0.00