4
D Day Major Winter
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 46
Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 2m 120y
#6
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Chepstow | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Brighton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Kempton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.64 |
| 28/07/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 90% | +0.74 |
| 12/08/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/07/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |