IvyArcIvyArc
6

Freewheelin

8yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 45

Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 2m 120y

#11

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★ Timeform

Commentary

Well over 4 years since his last success and it's hard to see him making much of an impact from just out of the weights.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Catterick 30/04/2024 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 45 · 1m5f192y Goo 126 · beat its mark30/04/2024 · OR 45 par30/046OR 456 @ Doncaster 11/07/2024 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 45 · 1m6f115y Goo 137 · beat its mark11/07/2024 · OR 45 par6 @ Wolverhampton 29/07/2024 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 45 · 1m6f Sta 131 · beat its mark29/07/2024 · OR 45 par29/076OR 456 @ Wolverhampton 18/01/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 45 · 2m120y Std 126 · beat its mark18/01/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 07/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 45 · 2m56y Std 124 · beat its mark07/03/2025 · OR 45 par7/036OR 456 @ Southwell 21/03/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 45 · 2m102y Std 126 · beat its mark21/03/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Hamilton 26/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 45 · 1m5f16y Gd 137 · beat its mark26/06/2025 · OR 45 par26/066OR 455 @ Southwell 21/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 45 · 1m3f23y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 45 · 1m5f219y Std 142 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 45 par21/076OR 45projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Wolverhampton68th8th0
2026-05-21Southwell58th7th+1
2025-06-26Hamilton67th7th0
2025-03-21Southwell610th10th0
2025-03-07Newcastle64th4th0
2025-01-18Wolverhampton611th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0418/0126/0621/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/04/202414th100/10%0%0.00
11/07/20244th50/10%63%+0.63
29/07/20244th33/10%70%+0.70
18/01/202511th80/10%0%0.00
07/03/20254th40/10%67%+0.67
21/03/202510th40/10%0%0.00
26/06/20257th80/10%0%0.00
21/05/20268th200/10%0%0.00
21/07/20268th200/10%30%+0.30