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11

Lilykoy

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 45

Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 2m 120y

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran near best when third of 4 in handicap at Newcastle (16.3f, 9/1) 24 days ago. Should give another good account but others preferred for win purposes. 1 lb out of the weights,

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 07/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 7f14y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS7/1055 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Chelmsford City 30/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 6f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS30/1056 @ Windsor 08/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 30 · 1m3f99y Goo 121 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 30 par6 @ Epsom Downs 01/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m4f6y Goo 117 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 45 par1/076OR 456 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 45 · 1m4f1y Std 123 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Lingfield 22/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 45 · 2m68y GF 120 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 45 par22/076OR 456 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 45 · 1m5f192y Goo 120 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 45 · 2m56y Std 122 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 45 par5/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-08-26Catterick64th4th0
2026-07-22Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-07-13Lingfield68th8th0
2026-07-01Epsom Downs66th6th0
2026-06-08Windsor65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/108/0622/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength96%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/10/202512th28/10%8%+0.08
18/10/20257th125/10%33%+0.33
30/10/202511th125/10%0%0.00
08/06/20265th66/10%67%+0.67
01/07/20266th11/142%44%+0.02
13/07/20268th22/10%42%+0.42
22/07/20263rd11/142%67%+0.25
26/08/20264th20/10%57%+0.57
05/09/20263rd9/153%33%-0.19