IvyArcIvyArc
3

Nature

8yo Mare · 9-5 · OR 48

Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 2m 120y

#9

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Offered little in a trio of starts here in 2022. Registered 3 victories at Les Landes since but hard to know what to expect here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength56%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 18/01/2022 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m4f14y Sta 123 · HIGHER CLASS18/0155 @ Lingfield 05/02/2022 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m4f1y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS5/0255 @ Southwell 05/03/2022 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 1m4f15y Sta 125 · HIGHER CLASS5/0356 @ Bath 14/04/2022 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m3f137y GS 127 · beat its mark14/04/2022 · OR 59 par14/046OR 59projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2022-04-14Bath67th7th0
2022-03-05Southwell54th3rd+1
2022-02-05Lingfield58th7th+1
2022-01-18Southwell56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/015/025/0314/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -12.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/01/20226th20/10%55%+0.55
05/02/20228th22/10%22%+0.22
05/03/20224th28/10%40%+0.40
14/04/20227th14/126%33%+0.07