Notable Charm
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 49
Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 2m 120y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 7.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-09-02 | Bath | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chepstow | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Salisbury | 3 | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 23rd | 150/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 12/05/2026 | 9th | 250/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 200/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |