Belltony

4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 45

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 142y

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C5.0

Today: 6

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-21	Ffos Las	6	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-06-30	Ffos Las	6	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-15	Chepstow	6	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-03-16	Wolverhampton	4	6th	4th	+2	6.4
2026-02-23	Wolverhampton	4	4th	2nd	+2	8.4
2026-01-30	Wolverhampton	4	7th	5th	+2	5.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength4%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
30/01/2026	7th	66/1	0%	0%	0.00
23/02/2026	4th	125/1	0%	57%	+0.57
16/03/2026	6th	300/1	0%	0%	0.00
15/06/2026	5th	50/1	0%	33%	+0.33
30/06/2026	5th	12/1	37%	43%	+0.06
21/09/2026	9th	22/1	0%	0%	0.00