1
Equion
8yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 53
Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 142y
#1
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Ffos Las | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Lingfield | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottingham | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-01-19 | Kempton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 70% | -0.22 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |
| 22/12/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 06/01/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 19/01/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 13/07/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |