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4

Kev

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 51

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 142y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark on second start for this yard at Lingfield in August and backed that up with creditable second of 12 in handicap (11/2) at Bath (1¼m, good) 16 days ago. Shortlist material.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 16/01/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 7f Sta 124 · HIGHER CLASS16/0155 @ Kempton 10/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 70 · 7f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/12/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Kempton 19/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 68 · 7f Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/01/2026 · OR 68 par19/015OR 686 @ Lingfield 21/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m1y Std 134 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m GS 130 · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 58 par17/046OR 586 @ Lingfield 19/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 55 · 7f135y Goo 135 · below its mark19/05/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Ffos Las 12/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 50 · 1m Gd 130 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 50 par12/086OR 506 @ Lingfield 27/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 48 · 1m2f Std 135 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 50 · 1m2f37y Gd 135 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 50 par13/096OR 50projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath62nd2nd0
2026-08-27Lingfield61st1st0
2026-08-12Ffos Las65th5th0
2026-05-19Lingfield613th13th0
2026-04-17Bath68th8th0
2026-02-21Lingfield69th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0121/0212/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20256th3/184%29%-0.56
10/12/202512th50/10%0%0.00
19/01/202610th50/10%10%+0.10
21/02/20269th40/10%0%0.00
17/04/20268th40/10%13%+0.13
19/05/202613th28/10%0%0.00
12/08/20265th16/116%56%+0.40
27/08/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
13/09/20262nd11/271%91%+0.20