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7

Tortola

4yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 47

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 142y

#5

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took a step back in right direction, on second start for new yard, when respectable fourth of 10 in handicap at this course (7f, 10/1) 8 days ago. Back up in trip. Warrants respect.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 8.1)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.9
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 03/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 59 · 7f Std 131 · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 59 par3/12C8OR 59BHA59 @ Dundalk 16/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 59 · 7f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 59 parC8 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f Std 133 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 58 par30/01C8OR 58C8 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m Std 122 · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 56 parBHA52 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 52 · 7f211y Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 52 par2/0752OR 52BHA53 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 53 · 1m40y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 53 parBHA53 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 53 · 1m2f150y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 53 par15/0853OR 536 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 49 · 7f36y Std 131 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 49 · 7f36y Std 129 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 49 par21/096OR 49projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-09-18Wolverhampton68th8th0
2026-08-15DundalkBHA537th6th+1
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA5313th12th+1
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA522nd1st+1
2026-02-13Dundalk?12th14th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1213/0215/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%

Delivery trend -8.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/12/20253rd50/10%78%+0.78
16/01/20265th12/137%69%+0.32
30/01/20267th11/142%45%+0.03
13/02/202612th20/10%0%0.00
02/07/20262nd28/10%93%+0.93
15/07/202613th9/276%0%-0.76
15/08/20267th22/10%54%+0.54
18/09/20268th9/276%0%-0.76
21/09/20264th10/147%67%+0.19