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4

African Spirit

5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 51

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 142y

#6

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole success came at Newcastle for Ben Brookhouse on debut in 2023. Back in good form of late though for new yard, most recently when creditable third of 11 in handicap at Lingfield (7f, AW) 19 days ago. One of likelier contenders.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength71%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Thirsk 16/06/2024 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 82 · 1m4f8y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/06/2024 · OR 82 par16/063OR 824 @ Newcastle 15/10/2024 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 79 · 1m2f42y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/10/2024 · OR 79 par5 @ Newcastle 01/11/2024 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m5y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/11/2024 · OR 75 par1/115OR 755 @ Wolverhampton 25/01/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 70 · 1m142y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/01/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 62 · 7f Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 62 par16/055OR 626 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 57 · 1m2f5y Goo 127 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 53 · 1m31y GF 133 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 53 par29/066OR 536 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 53 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Lingfield 10/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 52 · 7f1y Std 127 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 52 par10/096OR 52projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-07-30Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-06-29Windsor63rd3rd0
2026-06-08Pontefract68th8th0
2026-05-16Newmarket57th6th+1
2025-01-25Wolverhampton58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0625/0129/0610/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/06/202411th33/10%0%0.00
15/10/202412th11/142%0%-0.42
01/11/20248th10/147%0%-0.47
25/01/20258th11/142%0%-0.42
16/05/20267th12/137%0%-0.37
08/06/20268th50/10%30%+0.30
29/06/20263rd11/142%80%+0.38
30/07/20263rd16/116%82%+0.66
10/09/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02