Dumfries
6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 51
Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 142y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Beverley | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Beverley | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Beverley | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Beverley | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |
| 15/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 70% | +0.09 |
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 43% | -0.12 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 16/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |