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2

Knightmare

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 53

Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 142y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

20%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained reward for a string of solid efforts when shedding maiden tag in classified race at Chepstow (1m) in July and posted fine second at Ffos Las 4 days later. Below that level since, however, and others look better treated.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 50 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 50 par2/066OR 506 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 50 · 1m2f Goo 146 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Ffos Las 23/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 50 · 1m2f Gd 135 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 50 par23/066OR 506 @ Bath 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 49 · 1m Fm 135 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 49 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 49 par7/076OR 496 @ Chepstow 24/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 50 · 1m14y GF 135 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Ffos Las 28/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 50 · 1m Goo 140 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 50 par28/076OR 506 @ Chepstow 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 54 · 1m2f Goo 138 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Kempton 14/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m Sta 134 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 54 par14/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Kempton65th5th0
2026-08-29Chepstow65th5th0
2026-07-28Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-07-24Chepstow61st1st0
2026-07-07Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-07-01Bath62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/061/0728/0714/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength12%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/06/20262nd9/488%91%+0.03
15/06/20265th5/174%50%-0.24
23/06/20262nd6/168%89%+0.20
01/07/20262nd3/184%91%+0.07
07/07/20262nd1/195%83%-0.11
24/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
28/07/20262nd6/594%83%-0.10
29/08/20265th10/382%20%-0.62
14/09/20265th15/261%56%-0.05