Nicely Curved
6yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 47
Wolverhampton · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 142y
#7
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lingfield | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Kempton | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Doncaster | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 10/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 25/02/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 14% | -0.74 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 23/03/2026 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |