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4

Polly Plummer

3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 8 · OR 59

Turffontein · Betway Maiden Plate (F & M) · 7f 46y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

33/20, third of 8 in maiden at Vaal (6f, good to soft) 16 days ago. Back up in trip. Merits consideration.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength21%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Vaal 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 12621/05C8C5 @ Turffontein 07/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS7/06C5C8 @ Turffontein 29/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 12329/06C8C8 @ Vaal 17/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 5f212y GS 13217/09C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Vaal?3rd3rd0
2026-06-29Turffontein?5th5th0
2026-06-07Turffontein?5th1st+4
2026-05-21Vaal?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/057/0629/0617/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 54/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -21.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20262nd11/142%93%+0.51
07/06/20265th11/271%20%-0.51
29/06/20265th11/486%33%-0.52
17/09/20263rd6/492%71%-0.21