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Apache Son

6yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 6 · OR 58

Turffontein · Betway Mr 80 Handicap · 1m 4f 204y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Latest win at Vaal in September. 16/1, respectable fourth of 11 in handicap at Vaal (1¼m, good to soft) 16 days ago. Back up in trip. Something to find on form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Turffontein 16/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS16/05C5C5 @ Turffontein 04/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Turffontein 29/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS29/06C6C5 @ Turffontein 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Turffontein 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS25/07C6C5 @ Turffontein 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 117 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Vaal 19/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 110 · HIGHER CLASS19/08C5C6 @ Vaal 10/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m3f205y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Vaal 17/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f208y GS 115 · HIGHER CLASS17/09C5projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Vaal?4th3rd+1
2026-09-10Vaal?1st1st+0
2026-08-19Vaal?7th5th+2
2026-08-01Turffontein?3rd2nd+1
2026-07-25Turffontein?4th4th+0
2026-07-11Turffontein?5th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0511/0719/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20265th80/10%64%+0.64
04/06/20267th25/10%45%+0.45
29/06/202611th22/10%0%0.00
11/07/20265th33/10%50%+0.50
25/07/20264th18/15%57%+0.52
01/08/20263rd14/126%71%+0.45
19/08/20267th8/158%0%-0.58
10/09/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
17/09/20264th16/116%70%+0.54