4
Best Candidate
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 11 · OR 83
Turffontein · Betway Middle Stakes · 1m 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Scottsville | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 04/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 17/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |