7
First Wish
5yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 6 · OR 82
Turffontein · Betway Middle Stakes · 1m 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Vaal | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-22 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength52%
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 24/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 07/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/12/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/01/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 03/02/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |