1
Porridge Boy
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 7 · OR 92
Turffontein · Betway Middle Stakes · 1m 209y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Greyville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Greyville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Greyville | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-02-07 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-07-27 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/06/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 05/07/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 27/07/2025 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 11/04/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 78% | +0.73 |